The EV revolution is accelerating, reshaping transportation and urban planning across the UK. With the government’s commitment to banning new petrol and diesel car sales by 2030, local authorities must prepare for the growing demand for EVs and the infrastructure to support them. This article explores key trends in EV demand and offers actionable guidance for local area planning.
Understanding EV Demand Trends
In the first quarter of 2025, battery electric car uptake increased by an insane figure of 33,813 vehicles. Despite this record-breaking figure, a 20.17% market share is still below the target set by the Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Mandate.
(Source, EVA England)
Four months into the year, several major manufacturer groups are tracking comfortably ahead of their estimated real ZEV mandate targets. Based on year-to-date GB registrations, according to the New Automotive Report, the VW Group, BMW Group, Geely (including Volvo and Polestar), SAIC (MG), BYD, and Tesla are all monopolising the market.
However, Stellantis, Ford, Toyota, Renault, Mercedes, Nissan, Hyundai, Tata (Jaguar Land Rover), Mazda, Honda, and Suzuki are currently falling short of their estimated targets.
Get Out Of Jail Free Card?
In the EU and UK, automakers have CO₂ emissions targets across their entire fleet. If one car brand underperforms on emissions, another within the same parent group (like Stellantis or Volkswagen Group) can “transfer” its surplus of low-emission credits to help balance things out.
Relaxing the rules means regulators are allowing more flexibility in how much CO₂ credit can be shifted between brands, or extending the timeframe this can happen.
Forecasting Future EV Demand
The "Shifting Sands: Changes to UK Targets" report from New Automotive (2025) indicates a continued upward trajectory for EV sales throughout 2025. However, long-term projections for sustained growth in EV market share are less certain. Achieving further growth now largely depends on the strategies and products automakers bring to market.
Understanding New Policies: Turning Change into Opportunity
The report highlights 2030 as an important year for new policy directions. It explains that while the move to electric vehicles (EVs) aims to balance looking after our planet with economic sense, upcoming changes will present three key areas to focus on, offering chances to strengthen our approach.
For example, car makers will now focus directly on meeting their zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) targets. This means they won't use extra CO₂ emission savings from other areas to meet these specific ZEV goals, encouraging more direct innovation in zero-emission technology.
Also, cars that still use fuel will need to achieve emission targets that are 10% more ambitious. This encourages car makers to develop even more efficient vehicles.
Lastly, the way Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) are used and charged in everyday life will help us get a truer picture of their emissions. This will provide clearer information on their environmental benefits.
These connected policy updates mark an important step in how we adopt EVs and plan to cut emissions, offering a chance to refine our strategies for even better results. While the main EV goals remain the same, new rule details mean it’s a good time to look closely at how they will work in practice. Understanding these details will help everyone plan more effectively. Making these evolving rules clear will be important. Clear information will encourage investors to keep putting money into making EVs, building charging points, and producing the needed power.
More and more people in the UK are choosing electric vehicles, which is great news. This gives local councils a big opportunity to plan ahead and invest wisely. We're already seeing a good trend with EV sales in early 2025. Plus, studies from groups like New Automotive (who shared ideas on government EV plans) show that the market is set to change and grow. These changes, partly due to new rules and hybrid cars still being around, open up chances for new ideas and quick actions to make the most of this exciting shift to electric.
To support the rise in electric car use and help the move towards the 2030 ban on new petrol and diesel cars go smoothly, local councils can champion clear, forward-looking national policies. These policies should prioritise truly zero-emission vehicles.
Additionally, it’s important to work together to build plenty of easy-to-use charging points everywhere. This will help people feel confident about driving EVs longer distances and ensure everyone can enjoy the advantages of electric cars, no matter their location.
By concentrating on these important areas, local councils can play a key part in building a green and fair electric future for everyone in the UK.